Support for Danilo and his reelection increases
SANTO DOMINGO. Since the last Diario Libre – Greenberg survey in October, Danilo Medina has strengthened support for himself and for reelection. Today 69% of Dominicans support changing the Constitution in order to permit consecutive reelection, up seven points since October, and the percentage that says that he would be reelected against any other opponent if given a new opportunity grew six points to 71%.
As was the case in October, the support for the reelection of Medina goes beyond the rank-and-file of the PLD. At the same time, as might be expected, 86% of the PLD membership would vote to reelect Medina, 66% of those that do not identify themselves with a party support his reelection, an increase of 15 points since October and even a majority among those that voted for Hipolito Mejia in 2012, (52%), say they would vote to re-elect the current President.
New factors are pushing this support. First, Medina is supported by strong social policies. Nearly 7 of each 10 Dominicans (69%), say that the push which Medina has given to education is a major reason for supporting his reelection and this does not constitute a surprise given that now nearly all Dominicans, 95%, say that education is improving, including 69% say that education is improving a lot.
Second, together with education, a majority now says that health is also improving. The number of those that say that healthcare was an important worry has fallen five points since the last survey, and now 73% of Dominicans say that healthcare is improving, up a robust 23% since October.
In addition, the current survey also shows that the voters are beginning to see progress in other areas. Although only 18% of Dominicans said in October that public safety was improving, now 33% see it like that. For more than a third of Dominicans, living costs are improving, also up since the last survey, and now 42% say that the job situation is better, 10 points more than the 32% of October. Of course, many voters remain skeptical regarding those issues, but the percentage of those that see improvements is increasing notably.
“Throughout this governmental period, the voters have had confidence in the handling by President Medina, of the social issues such as education,” says Jessica Reis, the Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner vice president who directed the survey. “But now, the voters are beginning to see signs of progress in other areas. The result is a growing optimism and much higher grade for the President.”
Certainly, for the first time since the Diario Libre and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner began their surveys in 2008, a plurality of Dominicans say that the country is going in the right direction. 45% say that the country goes in the correct direction, up eight points since October.
This could be partially due to the matter in which the President has framed the progress of the country in his speech on “Report of Accounts” on 27 February. Some 40% said they had listened to the speech and 17% said they had listened to a lot of it. Among those that heard the speech, nearly three forths (74%), said that it made them feel more confident regarding the trajectory of the country.
Medina has capitalized on this growing optimism. His approval rating has grown three points since October up to 70% approval and among those that have heard his speech, 84% said that it made them feel more favorable towards the President and 55% said it made them feel much more favorable towards him.
“For many voters, the “Presentation of Accounts” by Medina, hit the right tone. He spelled out the progress that the country has achieved, but he also indicated that there is still a lot more to do,” said Reis. “A very brilliant focus would have sounded false, and it is because of that that Medina reminded the voters of the real advances in social expenditures and promised to do more on the economic issues and public safety.”
Electoral scenarios: Medina dominates if he appears on the ballot
Given the present context, Danilo Medina dominates if he is included on the ballot, both in the primaries of the PLD as well is in the election itself.
In the first round of the election, Medina will achieve 64% of the votes if the other candidate is Luis Abinader (16%), with Guillermo Moreno (7%), Miguel Vargas Maldonado (3%) and Quique Antun (1%).
If Hipolito Mejia emerges as the candidate for the PRM, Medina maintains his strength with 63% of the electorate against 18% for Mejia, 9% for Moreno and 2% each for Vargas Maldonado and Antun.
Medina obtains support beyond the PLD voters. In a clash with Abinader as the PRM candidate, Medina obtains a third of those that voted for Mejia in 2012, and although the candidate were to be Mejia, Danilo robs 29% of his voters from the last elections.
Dominicans are content with the normalizing of relations between Cuba and the USA
Regarding the normalization of the commercial relations between Cuba and the United States, Dominicans are optimistic regarding their benefits. Instead of seeing Cuba as a competitor in exports and tourism, a majority (61%) say that the normalizing of the relations will be something good for the country. The majority, 60%, also believe that it will be good for the Dominican economy.
March 25, 2015
Category: DR News |