Atlantic hurricane season 2012 started June 1st
June, 1st marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the Carolina coast has already seen two named tropical storms. NOAA says there will be nine to 15 named storms, four to eight hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.
Beryl, since downgraded to a depression and on a path back to oblivion in the Atlantic Ocean, also became the second storm this year to form before June 1, the day designated as the “official” start of hurricane season. It followed short-lived Tropical Storm Alberto, which spun up in mid-May
The average number of named storms per year (from 1981-1210) is twelve. Six of those turn into hurricanes on average, and three turn into major storms (Category Three or higher). Colorado State University predicts 10 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
But what the heck do they know, they are land-locked in a state that can’t even see the ocean on a good day, right ?I kid, they are usually right on the money.
What do these experts look at to predict the numbers ? The main things are sea surface temperatures and wind shear. So far, the sea surface temperatures are near average for the Atlantic Basin, and even a little below average in the Eastern Atlantic. The warmer the water, the better it is for storm formation. The magic number for a hurricane to maintain or gain strength is around 80 degrees Farenheit.
The wind shear is seems to be average right now as well, but there is an El Nino that should develop in the late summer/early fall. That would edge the jetstream farther south over the prime development region for hurricanes. The more they interact with the jetstream, the more they encounter wind shear, and the harder it is for them to gain strength. Let’s hope that happens!
Source: Dominican Republic Live
Category: DR News |